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Glossary of financial terms
Annual Compound Return – The
annual compound (ACR) return is the return that if compounded over
the life of the fund would lead to the total return of the fund.
For example, if a fund has a 10 year total return equaling 100%,
the annual compound return would be 7.18%.
Alpha - Alpha is
the measure of a fund's average performance independent of the market,
(i.e. if the market return was zero.) In a Regression of fund excess
returns versus benchmark excess returns, Alpha measures the consistent
element (positive or negative) of fund excess returns not related
to the benchmark or random factors. For example, if a fund has an
alpha of 2.0, and the market return was 0% for a given month, then
the fund would, on average, return 2% for the month.
Asset - An asset
is anything that is considered as having a positive monetary value.
Assets include holdings of obvious market value (cash, equities, property),
harder-to-measure value (equipment & stock), and other quantities (pre-paid
expenses, goodwill) considered assets by accounting conventions but possibly
having no market value at all.
Asset Allocation is
the process of selecting a mixture of different asset classes - equities,
bonds and cash investments to achieve an investment objective. It
is a critical part of investing. A wise asset allocation strategy
is the difference between a structured investment approach and a
simple collection of investments.
Average Annual Return or Average
Rolling 12 Month Return The average of
the rolling 12 month performance periods i.e. If a fund launches
in January 1997, and it is currently March 1998, then there are
four rolling 12 month periods for the fund. (The first is January
1997-December 1997, the next is February 1997-January 1998, the
next is March 1997-February 1998, and the last is April 1997
- March 1998.). The average annual return is the average of the
four rolling 12 month periods.
Average Gain – The
average of all profitable months in a given period. The Average Gain
is used as the numerator when calculating the Relative strength Index.
Average Loss - The
average of all negative months in a given period. The Average Loss
is used as the denominator when calculating Relative Strength Index.
Average Return -
The average of all the monthly performance returns in a given period.
Average Return is commonly used as a component in some Risk/Return
measures.
Average Number of Positions -
The number of securities that a fund holds on any given day.
Average Portfolio Turnover -
The percentage of a portfolio that is bought and sold each year.
Balanced funds -
Theseinvest in a mix of equities and bonds & cash. In general
balanced funds provide a reasonable level of income with the scope
for an increase in both the capital and the income.
Benchmark - A fund’s
benchmark should be a reasonable proxy for the investment universe
available to the fund manager. Total return indices are preferable
as are those that use a suitably weighted index of the universe of
assets from which the fund manager can select. In practice an index
exactly reflecting the fund asset universe may not be available in
which case the benchmark shoukd be a close proxy.
Beta. Beta is the measure of a fund's volatility relative to the market. In
a Regression Analysis Beta is the slope of the regression line. In a regression
of fund versus benchmark excess returns Beta measures the tendency of the fund
excess returns to move in line with the benchmark. A beta of greater than 1.0
indicates that the fund is more volatile than the market, and less than 1.0
is less volatile than the market. For example, if the market rises 1% and a
fund has a beta greater than 2.5, the fund will rise, on average, 2.5%. For
a fund with a beta of 0.4, if the market rises 1%, the fund will rise on average,
0.4%. The relationship is the same in a falling market. (Please note that funds
can have a negative beta, meaning that on average they rise when the market
falls and vice versa).
Bid Price - The price
at which investors sell their units back to the manager.
Bond funds - These
hold only bonds and cash. As with equity funds, they can be designed
to purchase particular grades of bonds. When considering investing
in a bond fund an investor should pay particular attention to the
investment grade and the duration of the holdings of the fund.
Calmar Ratio - A
return/risk ratio. Return (numerator) is defined as the Compound
Annualized Rate of Return over the last 3 years. Risk (denominator)
is defined as the Maximum Drawdown over the last 3 years.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) -
This is a method suitable for the management of diversified portfolios
where the only risk is systematic risk.
Components of Risk -
A fund’s total risk, where risk is measured by volatility,
can be analysed into two components, called specific and non-specific
risk. The non-specific risk is the benchmark-correlated component
and is typically measures by Beta.
Corporate Bonds -
These are bonds issued by companies. The amount of interest they
pay, the coupon rate, is generally higher than bonds of similar duration
issued by the governement because the risk of default is higher.
Independent companies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s
issue credit ratings for Corporate Bonds to allow investors to have
a clearer perception of quality.
Correlation - This
is a measure of the extent to which a change in one variable tends
to correspond to a change in another. Correlation is measured on
a scale from +1 to –1. A correlation of +1 represent perfect
unison, with up and down movements synchronsied and in proportion.
Correlation of zero represents complete independence, with up and
down movements of one varialble having no relation to those of the
other. Correlation of –1 represents perfect unisoon but this
time with the two moving in the opposite direction.
Distributor status -
An offshore fund which pays out most of its net income to investors
(at least 85% after charges and other expenses). Funds whose gross
income is minimal (less than 1% of assets) are also granted distributor
status. Any gain made on the sale of the investment will be subject
to the normal Capital Gains Tax rules. The fund must have held distributor
status for the full term of the investment to obtain this tax treatment.
Diversification -
A well-diversified portfolio will have assets placed in investment
classes that cover a wide range of the risk/return spectrum. Examples
of some investment vehicles include equities, bonds, mutual funds
(which can comprise equities, bonds, or a combination of both), certificates
of deposit (CDs), savings, and money market accounts. Each investment
class tends to react differently to changes in financial markets
and to the economy as a whole. Thus, by diversifying your portfolio,
risk is spread over a broader range of investments, potentially minimizing
the impact of downturns in the economy or a particular market sector.
Downside Deviation -
This is a measure of the deviation of fund or benchmark returns that
fall below the Minimum Acceptable Return (MAR). It is calculated
by taking root mean square of the negative differences. Downside
Deviation is an alternative measure of risk that focuses on the downside
only. Semi-variance is a special case of Downside Deviation where
MAR for each period is the risk-free rate of return plus the mean
excess return.
Drawdown is the percentage
loss in value of a fund or benchmark from previous high point.
Efficiency is a description
of the trade-off between risk & return. There are a number of
different rations used to describe efficiency including Sharpe ratio,
Treynor Ratio, Jensen Alpha, Risk adjusted performance (RAP), M-squared,
Information ratio and Sortino ratio. Each of these ratios seeks to
provide a measure of return-per-unit-of-risk.
Efficiency chart is
a chart which plots mean return versus risk. Points can be plotted
on the chart for one or more funds, the benchmark & the risk-free
rate. The Efficiency line is a straight line drawn through the risk-free
and benchmark points. The main difference between different types
of Efficiency chart is the risk measure used.
Efficient Frontier - If
you have data for a collection of funds and you graph the return
rates and standard deviations for these funds, and for all portfolios
you can get by allocating among them. Markowitz showed that you get
a region bounded by an upward-sloping curve, which he called the
efficient frontier. Any point on this line has the optimum return
for a given level of risk.
Equites - The term
for company shares The share capital forms the basis of the equity
of the company.
Equity funds buy
equities. Their investment objective is usually specific to a certain
equity type -- small cap, large cap, international, etc. In general
they will have more than 80% of their assets invested in equities.
Excess Return is
the return in excess of the risk free return. Note that the risk-free
rate of return is not a constant but changes each period.
Growth Manager. A
growth manager buys stocks whose growth rates in sales have been,
or are expected to be, greater than most companies. New technology,
a proprietary product or being well positioned within a growth industry,
can all contribute to a company's accelerated growth rate. Growth
portfolios generally contain stocks whose earnings growth and return
on equity are greater than the FT All Share.
Hedge Funds. Hedge
funds are eclectic investment pools, typically organized as private
partnerships and often located offshore for tax and regulatory reasons.
Their managers--who are paid on a fee-for-performance basis. They
are free to use a variety of investment techniques, including short
positions and gearing, to raise returns and cushion risk. Three main
classes of hedge funds can be identified:
- macro funds, which take large directional (unhedged) positions
in national markets based on top-down analysis of macroeconomic
and financial conditions, including the current account, the inflation
rate, and the real exchange rate;
- global funds, which also take positions worldwide, but employ
bottom-up analysis, picking stocks on the basis of individual companies'
prospects; and
- relative value funds, which take bets on the relative prices
of closely related securities (treasury bills and bonds, for example).
Within these categories, there is further diversity. Although most
macro hedge funds take positions mainly in mature markets, some also
take positions in emerging markets. A number of the largest macro
funds do both and spread their holdings across equities, bonds, and
currencies (taking both short and long positions), and in addition
hold commodities and other less liquid assets such as real estate.
But the majority of macro funds hold a more limited range of assets,
typically allocating only a fraction of their portfolios to emerging
markets, where risks of concentrated stakes and costs of establishing
and liquidating large positions can be high. Most relative value
funds similarly limit their holdings to the mature markets, because
their expertise is limited to those markets.
High Water Mark is
used to mark a point above which performance related fees are paid
to an investment manager. Use of High Water Marks has become standard
in the Hedge Fund industry. High water marks are not mandatory.
Highest 12 Month Return -
The best or highest 12 month period of a fund's performance The best
or highest 12 month period of a fund's performance
Highest Monthly Return -
The best or highest monthly return of the fund. The best or highest
monthly return of the fund.
High Yield Debt Market Risk. The
market for high yield debt depends on the above-average risk that
a company rated non-investment grade will not be able to serve its
debt obligations in a timely manner. High yield bonds therefore expose
investors to a higher probability of default than other fixed income
instruments.
Holding Period Return is
the return for a stated period for which an investment is held. The
Holding Period Return = (sale price + dividends or interest - purchase
price) / purchase price.
Hurdle Rate is the
return above which a hedge fund manager begins taking incentive fees.
For example, if a fund has a hurdle rate of 10%, and the fund returns
25% for the year, the fund will only take incentive fees on the 15%
return above the hurdle rate.
Incentive Fee - The
fee on new profits earned by a fund for a period. For example, if
an initial investment of £1,000,000 returned 25% during the
period (creating profits of £250,000) and the fund has an incentive
fee of 20%, then the fund receives 20% of the 3250,000 in profits,
or £50,000.
Index Tracker is
a fund whose aim is to track a specified benchmark. There are various
tracking techniques including replication, stratification, optimisation
and derivative-based strategies.
Information Ratio -
The Information Ratio for a fund relative to a benchmark is it’s
Alpha divided by it’s Tracking Error.
Investment Objective of
a fund is designed to give investors an understanding of the style
of a investment management employed and to outline the regions, sectors
and asset classes in which a fund invests.
Investment Trusts are
similar to unit trusts but are governed by company law. The number
of shares in issue is normally fixed and the price varies according
to market demand. The underlying value of an Investment Trust is
called the Net Asset Value (NAV). When the share price is above the
NAV price the trust is said to be trading at a Premium. When the
share price is below the NAV price the trust is said to be trading
at a Discount. Discounts and Premiums are normally expressed as a
percentage of NAV.
Jensen Alpha is the
Alpha from regression of fund versus benchmark excess returns. As
a performance measure it is similar to Risk Adjusted Performance
(RAP) but uses Beta as the measure of risk rather than volatility
(or VaR).
Kurtosis is a risk
term for describing distributions of standard deviations that are
not “normal”.
Leverage is the practice
of using borrowings to increase gearing. The amount of leverage/gearing
used by a hedge fund is expressed as a percentage of the fund. For
example, if the fund has £1,000,000 and borrows another £2,000,000,
to bring the total amount invested to £3,000,000, then the
leverage/gearing level is 200%.
Lockup - Time period
that an investment cannot be redeemed from within a fund.
Longest Losing Streak -
The largest number of consecutive months of negative performance.
Management Fee -The
fees taken by the manager on the entire asset level of the investments.
Normally accrued daily and deducted monthly from the fund.
Maximum Drawdown is
the worst period of fund performance for a fund. It is calculated
by taking the performance from the high point to the low point in
the period.
Maximum Recovery Period is
the maximum time period required to recover from a previous Drawdown.
Mean – Arithmetic -
The mean usually referred to is the arithmetic mean. It is the sum
of a series of n numbers divided by n. A weighted arithmetic mean
gives specified weights to each element. Some indices are calculated
by weighting components according to their market capitalisation
and/or their level of “free-float” of shares.
Mean – Geometric - For
a series of n positive numbers, the geometric mean is obtained by
multiplying the numbers together and taking the n’th root.
The arithmetic mean will always be greater than or equal to the geometric
mean.
M-squared is a measure
of performance named after Modigliani and Modigliani. It’s
a fund’s mean excess return, risk-adjusted to the risk level
of the benchmark, less the benchmark’s mean excess return.
M-squared and Risk Adjusted Performance are simple measures but RAP
risk-adjusts the benchmark to the fund while M-squared risk-adjusts
the fund to benchmark.
Median is the most
value of the “middle observation” in a series of monthly
investment returns.
Minimum Acceptable Rate (MAR)
is used in the calculation of Downside Deviation. It represents the
return below which an investor considers a loss to have occurred.
In calculating Downside Deviation only returns below MAR are counted.
Typical settings for MAR are the risk-free return and zero.
Mode is the most
frequent observation in a series of monthly investment returns.
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) was
introduced by Harry Markowitz with his paper "Portfolio Selection" which
appeared in the 1952 Journal of Finance. Thirty-eight years later,
he shared a Nobel Prize with Merton Miller and William Sharpe for
what has become a broad theory for portfolio selection and corporate
finance. MPT is the philosophical opposite of traditional stock picking.
It is the creation of economists, who try to understand the market
as a whole, rather than business analysts, who look for what makes
each investment opportunity unique. Investments are described statistically,
in terms of their expected long-term return rate and their expected
short-term volatility. The volatility is equated with "risk",
measuring how much worse than average an investment's bad years are
likely to be. The goal is to identify your acceptable level of risk
tolerance, and then to find a portfolio with the maximum expected
return for that level of risk. The conclusion of MPT is that the
scientific way to attain a diversified portfolio is by using the
Sharpe Ratio to invest in low cost index funds.
Money market funds stick
with safe, short-term debt instruments such as commercial paper,
banker's acceptances, repurchase agreements and certificates of deposit.
Because they have low risk, they typically provide the lowest returns
among mutual funds. Their main uses are to park money between investments,
hold emergency savings and to save for short-term goals. A small
investment in money markets may also reduce some risk in a long-term
investment account.
Money-weighted return is
a method of calculating returns when there are cash flows during
the period. It is the internal rate of return which equates the intermediate
cash flows and final portfolio with the initial portfolio. The money-
weighted return method assumes that the same return applies over
the whole period, unlike the time-weighted method where changes are
taken into account. The time-weighted method is preferable but the
portfolio values at the time of each cash flow must be known in order
to calculate it. Mutual Funds calculate unit prices daily, taking
into account sales and repurchases, so it is simple to calculate
time-weighted returns for funds. For a portfolio, if the return during
the period does not does not fluctuate greatly and the cash flows
are not large compared to the size of the portfolio then the difference
between the time-weighted and money-weighted returns method should
be small.
Net Asset Value (NAV) – The
NAV price is calculated by dividing the value of the assets of the
fund less the applicable annual charges and fees, by the number of
shares in issue. The NAV price is therefore the value per share before
any sales charges are added.
Non-Distributor Status -
Effectively an offshore fund which accumulates income within the
fund and pays no dividends. All gains from this type of fund are
taxed as income. This will result in most cases in an investor having
to pay more tax than would be required with a Distributor fund.
Normal Distributions are
a set of distributions of returns that have the same general shape.
They are symmetric with returns more concentrated in the middle than
in the tails. Normal distributions are sometimes described as bell
shaped. The height of a normal distribution can be specified mathematically
in terms of two parameters the mean (m) and the standard deviation
(s). Investment managers use a normal distribution when calculating
the Value at Risk (VaR).
Offer Price - The
price at which investors buy units from the manager. The offer price
normally includes any establishment, sales and commission charges.
OEIC - An Open Ended
Investment Company does not have a fixed capital. The number of shares
or units in issue can be varied according to demand. They are very
similar to Unit Trusts but are subject to Company Law not Trusts
Law. Units are normally quoted on a single price basis with charges
highlighted separately.
Open-Ended Fund -
There is no limit to the number of units or shares issued by the
fund. Units are created according to the number of units purchased
by investors.
Option - The right,
but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at an agreed price
on or before a fixed date and time in the future.
Optimisation - A
mathematical process to obtain the optimum asset allocation for a
portfolio from a given range of assets. The input variables are normally
risk and return.
Overbought/Oversold -
Generally associated with the Relative Strength Index. RSI readings
below 30 are considered oversold and readings above 70 considered
overbought. The choice of overbought and oversold levels is discretionary
and much will depend on the individual fund. Generally, a RSI that
rises above 30 from oversold levels is bullish and a RSI that falls
from overbought levels below 70 is bearish.
Past Performance -
The past is not necessarily a guide to the future. This caveat invariably
and properly appears when historical investment performance is analysed.
An analyst or investor therefore needs a clear view of what he hopes
to achieve by historical performance analysis and its limitations.
Percent Long - The
percentage of a hedge fund invested in long positions
Percent Short - The
percentage of a hedge fund that is sold short.
Period Returns -
Period Returns are used to isolate periods of out-performance or
under-performance that can be hidden by cumulative returns. Period
returns are normally analysed on a rolling monthly or quarterly basis.
Private Equity Market Risk -
The market risk for private equity depends to a certain degree on
the small cap and high-tech IPO market. A reduction in the IPO market
activities limits the exit possibilities in many private equity investments.
Profitable Percentage -
The percentage of profitable monthly returns from a fund in a given
period.
Redemption- The frequency
at which fund redemptions are accepted by the fund. Liquidity risk
should be an integral part of any risk assessment.
Regression is a statistical
procedure to establish the relationship between two variable, for
example fund and benchmark excess returns. Each point is plotted
on a graph and a line of best fit is calculated. The slope of the
line is called the regression Beta. The intercept with the axis is
called the Alpha.
Relative Downside Deviation of
a fund compared to a benchmark is the fund Downside Deviation divided
by the benchmark Downside Deviation. Relative Downside Deviation
of greater than one indicates that the fund is more risky than the
benchmark, less than one indicates that it is less risky.
Relative Strength Index was
devloped by J. Welles Wilder. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is
a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. Its name can
be confusing because it does not compare the strength of one fund
against another. Rather, RSI compares the magnitude of gains against
the magnitude of losses. The Relative Strength Index = Average Gain
/ Average Loss.
Relative Volatility of
a fund compared to a benchmark is the fund volatility divided by
the benchmark volatility. A fund with a Relative Volatility of greater
than one indicates that the fund is more volatile than the benchmark,
less than one indicates that it is less volatile.
Reporting Agent -
A third party that analyses and verifies the returns of a fund.
Return is the percentage
increase in value of an investment for a given period. If X is the
starting value and Y is the finishing value the return is 100 x (
Y/X – 1). For the calculation of return where there are cash
flows during the period see Time-weight and Money-weighted Return.
Risk denotes the
unpredictability of investment returns. The standard measure of risk
is volatility, measure by the standard deviation of excess returns.
Alternative measures of risk are Value at Risk, Beta, Downside Deviation.
Tracking Error is sometimes referred to as a risk measure as it denotes
the unpredictability of investment returns around the benchmark.
Risk Adjusted Performance (RAP) of
a fund is it’s mean excess return less the mean excess return
of the risk-adjusted benchmark. On an Efficiency chart for where
risk is measured by volatility or Value at Risk, the RAP I shown
by the distance of the fund point above the Efficiency line.
Risk–adjusted Benchmark -
A fund is usually somewhat more or less risky than it’s benchmark.
The benchmark excess return can be risk-adjusted to any level using
a notional combination of benchmark and risk-free assets. For example,
a combination of 75% benchmark and 25% risk-free has a risk of 75%
of the benchmark. It also has 75% of the benchmark excess return.
Combinations that are more risky than the benchmark can be obtained
if it is assumed one can borrow at the risk-free rate. The risk/return
combinations are shown by the efficiency line on an efficiency chart.
When the benchmark has been risk adjusted to the same level of risk
as the fund their excess returns can be then properly compared.
Risk Free - The risk-free
return is the return that a fund manager could have obtained with
certainty by placing funds on deposit. For a sterling-based investor
it is normally given by the yield achieved from short term gilts
or by the interbank deposit rate for the relevant holding period.
Risk Measure - There
a several ways of measuring risk including: beta, standard deviation
(volatility), tracking error, semi-variance and downside deviation,
Each measure provides a different insight into the dispersion of
returns around their mean level.
R Squared - In a
regression R-squared measures the proportion of the variance of one
variable explained by the variance of the other variable. R-squared
is equivalent to the correlation squared. R-squared says nothing
about the direction of cause and effect. The industry assumes that
an R squared below 0.3 has no correlation to the market.
Semi-Variance is
a special case of Downside Deviation where the Minimum Acceptable
Return (MAR) for each period is the risk-free rate of return plus
the mean excess return.
SICAV. Société d'Investissement à Capital
Variable. A french Unit Trust.
Standard Deviation is a common measure
of risk (volatility) - It is usually calculated
as the Standard Deviation of monthly returns over a 3 year period.
Sharpe Ratio for
a fund is the mean excess return dividend by the volatility (measured
by standard deviation). On an efficiency chart for which risk is
measured by volatility, the Sharpe Ratio is the slope of the line
joining the fund point and the risk-free point.
Short selling involves
borrowing an equity or other instrument and selling it in anticipation
of being able to repurchase it at a lower price in the market, at
or before the time when it must be repaid to the lender. Both short
selling and leverage are regarded as risky when practiced in isolation.
Short Selling Market Risk -
The market risk for short selling is due to the fact that the profit
is limited and the loss is unlimited.
Skew is used to describe
returns that are not “normal”. Returns with a positive
skew are sought by risk averse investors. Reality more often delivers
a negative skew.
Sortino Ratio is
similar to the Sharpe Ratio, except that instead of using standard
deviation as the denominator, it uses Downside Deviation. The Sortino
Ratio was developed to differentiate between “good” and “bad” volatility
in the Sharpe Ratio. If a fund is volatile on the upside (which is
generally a good thing) its Sharpe ratio would still be low. To quote
the Sortino web site: “A comparable downside risk ratio that
has come to be called the Sortino ratio has for the numerator the
difference between the return on the portfolio and the Minimum Acceptable
Return (MAR). The denominator for the Sharpe ratio is standard deviation,
and for the Sortino ratio it is downside deviation."
Sterling Ratio is
similar to the Sharpe Ratio, except that instead of using standard
deviation as the denominator, risk is defined as the average yearly
maximum drawdown over the last 3 years plus an arbitrary 10%.
Systematic Risk is
the potential variability of returns of an investment caused by general
market influences such as interest rate, inflation & tax changes.
This element of risk cannot be eliminated through diversification.
Time Horizon is the
minimum time period which an investor must have in mind when choosing
to invest in a particular asset class. For equity based investments
the recommended time period is at least 5-7 years.
Time-weighted return is
a method of calculating return where there are cash flows during
the period. Returns for each sub-period between cash flows are calculated
and these are accumulated to obtain the return for the total period.
The time-weighted return represents the return for £1 of the
portfolio that remains invested from beginning to end. In practice
the intermediate portfolio values are not always know in which case
the money-weighted return method has to be used.
Time-weighting -
In making estimates time-weighting counts recent data more heavily
than distant data. Unweighted estimates treat all data equally. By
time-weighting the impact of a very good (or a very bad month) reduces
gradually over time.
Total Return is measure
of performance where both dividends and capital growth are included
in the return.
Tracing Error is
the specific risk for a fund, i.e. the component of a fund’s
risk that is independent of the benchmark. Note that tracking error
squared plus beta squared equals volatility squared.
Treynor Ratio for
a fund is the mean monthly excess return divided by the Beta. For
the benchmark the divisor is 1. It is a measure of efficiency similar
to the Share Ratio but with Beta as the risk measure rather than
volatility.
Umbrella Fund – An
open-ended investment Company (OEIC/SICAV) with sub-funds or compartments,
each with its own specific investment objectives. The umbrella structure
allows investors to select particular funds investing in different
geographical regions or industrial sectors within the same investment
vehicle.
UCITS - Undertakings
for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities. Funds with
UCITS accreditation can be freely sold across the EU, hence the term “fund
passport”, though they are subject to local marketing and tax
laws. The initial UCITS directive strictly limited the assets in
which funds could invest. Future & Options and Funds of Funds
were specifically excluded. This limitation has been relaxed through
UCITS II.
Unsystematic Risk is
sometimes called Specific or Idiosyncratic risk and is the potential
variability of returns of an investment caused by specific items
such as management, profitability, liquidity & default. It can
be eliminated through diversification.
Value at Risk (VaR) is
a measure of the risk of a fund or benchmark. It is calculated as
1.65 times volatility. Roughly interpreted one would not expect a
loss of more than VaR in 19 periods out of 20 on average. In 1 period
out of 20 one would expect the loss to be more severe. These are
averages so it does not mean that a loss greater than the VaR in
one period cannot be followed by another in the following period.
VaR depends on the time horizon chosen. For instance the VaR for
a 3-month time horizon is greater than for a 1-month time horizon,
though it is less than 3 times as great. Some of the short-term volatility
cancels out over the longer period. However, relative VaRs are the
same for any time horizon so VaR is a good way of comparing the relative
risk of funds and benchmarks.
Value Investor -
Warren Buffet is the most famous value investor, he buys companies
that may be trading at a discount to their intrinsic value. Buy low,
sell high at it's elegant best. He invests only for the long term,
in companies who's earnings he can reasonably predict, and has strong
economics working in their favor. That means that the business makes
lots of money, and is free to improve its own profitability through
re-investment. He selects businesses that he understands well, which
is why he avoids the technology sector, and companies that he would
like personally to participate in. But, once identified, he waits
for the right price before he buys. Patience as a financial virtue.
In particular, he looks for companies that exhibit a consumer monopoly,
or provide a product or service that is special, and inspires its
own consumer loyalty. Among the holdings of Buffett's company, Berkshire
Hathaway, have been The Washington Post Company, Coca-Cola, GEICO
and Gillette.
Volatility of fund or benchmark monthly
excess returns is a measure of their variability
from the mean. Volatility is a measure of risk, calculated as
the standard deviation of excess returns. Although usually calculated
on the basis of monthly returns, volatility is often quoted as
an annualised figure to facilitate comparison with annualised
returns.
Winning Ratio is
the number months with positive returns divided by the number of
months with negative returns and is expressed as a percentage. i.e.
If over a period of 36 months, 24 months are positive and 12 are
negative the Winning Ratio is ( 24 / 36) x 100.
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